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Herman Kahn QUOTES / QUOTATIONS
A closely related common error is to mistake a prescription for macro-behavior as one that will affect microbehavior, or vice versa.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
A surprising number of government committees will make important decisions on fundamental matters with less attention than each individual would give to buying a suit.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
A total nuclear freeze is counterproductive - especially now, when technology is rapidly changing and the Soviets have some important strategic advantages.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Anything that reduces war-related destruction should not be considered altogether immoral.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
As for total disarmament, there are almost 50,000 nuclear weapons in the world today; even if they were banned, not all would be destroyed.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Because of new technologies, new wealth, new conditions of domestic life and of international relations, unprecedented criteria and issues are coming up for national decision.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Clearly, the first task is to gain acceptance of a more reasonable view of the future, one that opens possibilities rather than forecloses them.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Criteria for decisions are often too narrow because the decision-makers are parochial, partisan, or self-interested, or simply not accustomed to considering the new criteria that are becoming relevant.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Deterrence itself is not a preeminent value; the primary values are safety and morality.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Failures of perspective in decision-making can be due to aspects of the social utility paradox, but more often result from simple mistakes caused by inadequate thought.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
For if enough people were really convinced that growth should be halted, and if they acted on that conviction, then billions of others might be deprived of any realistic hope of gaining the opportunities now enjoyed by the more fortunate.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions - both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth's ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age - but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Human and moral factors must always be considered. They must never be missing from policies and from public discussion.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
I am against the whole cliche of the moment.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
I'm against fashionable thinking.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
I'm against ignorance.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
If we recognize nuclear deterrence as a means toward attaining a safer overall security environment, then simplistic stability (stability only against a first strike) should not be the sole objective of strategic forces.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Many people seem to believe that any change in weapons technology has to be for the worse, but that is demonstrably untrue.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Miscarriages of policy decisions can result from a lack of continuity in the effective actors or pressure groups.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Nevertheless, during the sixty years of the twentieth century many problems have come increasingly into the realm of acceptable public discussion.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
New developments in weapon systems during the 1950s and early 1960s created a situation that was most dangerous, and even conducive to accidental war.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Nuclear weapons are intrinsically neither moral nor immoral, though they are more prone to immoral use than most weapons.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Once weapons are allowed to become widely diffused, it becomes much more difficult to work out methods of arms control.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
The objective of nuclear-weapons policy should not be solely to decrease the number of weapons in the world, but to make the world safer - which is not necessarily the same thing.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
The possibility of inadvertent war would no doubt increase not only because there would be many more weapons and missiles available, but because there will be many more organizations in existence, each with different standards of training, organization, and degrees of responsibility.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, and in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
There was no race - but to the extent that there was an arms competition, it was almost entirely on the Soviet side, first to catch up and then to surpass the Americans.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
Thus naive utilitarianism can do considerable social damage; and moral rules are required under a variety of circumstances.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
To the extent that these advanced weapons or their components are treated as articles of commerce, perhaps for peaceful uses as in the Plowshare program, their cost would be well within the resources available to many large private organizations.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
To us, the virtue of the image of the future presented here is not that it may prove useful (though we are highly pleased that this may be so), but rather that our forecast of the future may prove accurate, or at least about the most plausible image one can develop now.
Quotation of Herman Kahn
World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race.
Quotation of Herman Kahn